Zjawisko ujemnej stopy dyskontowej w oparciu o behawioralną hipotezę cyklu życia Shefrina i Thalera

Marcin Palenik

Abstrakt


Zjawisko ujemnej stopy dyskontowej, a więc preferencji odroczenia w czasie korzystnych zdarzeń, jest zjawiskiem rzadkim, jak również mało zbadanym. Niniejszy artykuł koncentruje się na okolicznościach mogących istotnie zwiększyć częstotliwość występowania ujemnej stopy dyskontowej. Wyprowadzono w nim, a następnie zweryfikowano empirycznie hipotezy badawcze wynikające z teorii Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis (BLCH) autorstwa Shefrina i Thalera.

Zgodnie z dwiema pierwszymi hipotezami, wysoki poziom aktualnego majątku oraz wysoki poziom dochodów są czynnikami sprzyjającymi występowaniu preferencji odroczenia dodatkowych środków pieniężnych. Dwie kolejne hipotezy odnosiły się do przyszłych dochodów. Jak pokazały badania, oczekiwany spadek dochodów wpływa na większą skłonność do odraczania dodatkowych środków pieniężnych. Natomiast oczekiwanie w przyszłości niedostatecznych dochodów w stosunku do wydatków, zachęcało badanych do odraczania części dochodów. Należy podkreślić, że nie badano chęci odroczenia konsumpcji, co jest zwykłym zjawiskiem oszczędzania, lecz odroczenia w czasie otrzymania środków pieniężnych. Taka postawa w ekonomii jest zazwyczaj całkowicie wykluczana.


Słowa kluczowe


dyskontowanie, ujemna stopa dyskontowa, odraczanie w czasie, Behavioral Life-Cycle Hypothesis, samokontrola

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.95

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